April, 2008

The following is intended as general information and does not represent legal or tax advice. Individual circumstances vary - please consult your legal and tax advisors about your specific situation. As a monthly news source, some information may remain on this page for several weeks. To return to the general planned giving pages, please close this browser window. This News and Information section has been compiled by Future Focus.

"Pray. Grow holy. Collect funds. Alas! Why must one always, when planning the works of God, put this vile question of money on par with spiritual means? It is because, in truth, without it, one can do nothing."

St. Madeleine Sophie Barat, who founded the Society of the Sacred Heart in 1800

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Immediate And Deferred Gift Annuity Rates Are Lowered
Having conducted its annual review, the ACGA Rates Committee recommended a new, lower schedule of gift annuity rates for immediate gift annuities, effective on July 1, 2008. In addition, the deferred gift annuity rates which became effective on July 1, 2006 will also be lower. At its April 2, 2008, meeting the ACGA board approved these recommendations.

One of the primary activities of the ACGA (American Council on Gift Annuities) is the publication of suggested charitable gift annuity rates for use by charities and their donors. The Council retains the services of an actuarial firm to advise and consult on matters pertaining to life expectancies and related matters. The Council has a long and distinguished record in this area, and its suggested rates have long been recognized, not only by charities and donors, but also by state insurance departments and the IRS as being actuarially sound and in the best interests of all parties involved.

Editor's note - The new rates will take effect 7/1/2008. Until then, the existing (higher) rates are still in effect. Most charitable organizations that issue gift annuity contracts will continue to use the existing rates through the end of June. If so, a gift annuity contract made prior to the end of June would have a higher rate for the life of the contract. If you are considering a charitable gift annuity, a decision prior to the change in rates would mean a greater annual return for the annuitant. The difference can be illustrated with the following examples of a single life rate:

Age
Existing
New
65
6.00%
5.70%
80
8.00%
7.60%
90
11.30%
10.50%
4/8/08 American Council on Gift Annuities (ACGA)

Phishing Scams, Frivolous Arguments Top the 2008 "Dirty Dozen" Tax Scams
Topping this year's list of scams is phishing, which encompasses numerous Internet-based ploys to steal financial information from taxpayers. New to the "Dirty Dozen" this year is a scheme, which IRS auditors discovered, that relates to unreasonable and/or excessive fuel tax credit claims. Tax schemes can lead to problems for both scam artists and taxpayers. Tax return preparers and promoters also risk significant penalties, interest and possible criminal prosecution. The IRS urges taxpayers to avoid these common schemes:

1. Phishing Phishing is a tactic used by Internet-based thieves to trick unsuspecting victims into revealing personal information they can then use to access the victims' financial accounts.
2. Scams Related to the Economic Stimulus Payment Some scam artists are trying to trick individuals into revealing personal financial information that can be used to access their financial accounts by making promises relating to the economic stimulus payment, often called a "rebate."
3. Frivolous Arguments Promoters of frivolous schemes encourage people to make unreasonable and unfounded claims to avoid paying the taxes they owe.
4. Fuel Tax Credit Scams The IRS is receiving claims for the fuel tax credit that are unreasonable.
5. Hiding Income Offshore Individuals continue to try to avoid paying U.S.taxes by illegally hiding income in offshore bank and brokerage accounts or using offshore debit cards, credit cards, wire transfers, foreign trusts, employee leasing schemes, private annuities or life insurance plans.
6. Abusive Retirement Plans The IRS continues to uncover abuses in retirement plan arrangements, including Roth Individual Retirement Arrangements (IRAs).
7. Zero Wages Filing a phony wage- or income-related information return to replace a legitimate information return has been used as an illegal method to lower the amount of taxes owed.
8. False Claims for Refund and Requests for Abatement This scam involves a request for abatement of previously assessed tax using Form 843, "Claim for Refund and Request for Abatement."
9. Return Preparer Fraud Dishonest tax return preparers can cause many problems for taxpayers who fall victim to their schemes.
10. Diguised Corporate Ownership Some people are going as far as forming domestic shell corporations in certain states for the purpose of disguising the ownership of a business or financial activity.
11. Misuse of Trusts For years, unscrupulous promoters have urged taxpayers to transfer assets into trusts.
12. Abuse of Charitable Organizations and Deductions The IRS continues to observe the misuse of tax-exempt organizations.

IRS Watches Scams That Fall Off the List While the IRS has seen a decline in the occurrence of some of these scams, other problems, such as abuse of the American Indian Employment Credit and misuse of structured entity credits, continue to be areas of concern. The absence of a particular scheme from the Dirty Dozen should not be taken as an indication that the IRS is unaware of it or not taking steps to counter it.
3/13/08 IR 2008-41

IRS rebates won't be taxed by the Federal government, but look out for your state taxes
Those who receive a stimulus rebate will not have to pay federal taxes on it, but don't spend too freely because you may end up having to pay state taxes, depending on where you live. In addition, the IRS has the right to divert your rebate to pay past due taxes. The rebates from the Internal Revenue Service are part of an economic stimulus package approved by Congress and signed by President Bush earlier this year. The law stipulated that these sums cannot be taxed federally. However, John Roth, a senior tax analyst at business law information provider CCH, said the federal law has no impact on state tax codes and practices. Each state sets its own tax law. To date none of the 50 states have passed legislation that would allow them to tax the Federal rebate. But the states still have time. Laws that would effect the upcoming rebates on 2007 Federal taxes could be passed by the states later in the year, Roth said.
3/6/08 AP in the Boston Herald

Q and A regarding the economic stimulus payments
Here are several selected Q and A's. For the complete article, please visit the IRS website.
Q. What do I need to do to get an economic stimulus payment?
A. All you need to do is file a federal income tax return for 2007. Even if you are not otherwise required to file a tax return, you must file a 2007 return in order to receive a payment this year. Although some filers, such as high-income filers, will not qualify for a stimulus payment, most will. You do not need to calculate the amount of the stimulus payment. If you qualify, the IRS will automatically figure it and send it to you.
Q. How do I find out if I am eligible?
A. Most people with a 2007 net income tax liability will qualify. This includes most people who get tax refunds. Net income tax liability is the amount shown on Form 1040, Line 57 plus the amount on Line 52. For 1040A filers, it is the amount on Line 35 plus the amount on Line 32. For Form 1040EZ filers, it is the amount on Line 10. Some higher-income taxpayers will not receive a stimulus payment or will receive a reduced payment.
Q. When will I receive my stimulus payment?
A. The Treasury Department will start sending out payments in early May.
Q. Will my stimulus payment be included in my regular tax refund? Will the checks or direct deposits come at the same time?
A. No and no. There will be two payments. You will receive one payment for your regular tax refund and later you will receive a separate stimulus payment.
Q. I have not yet filed my 2007 tax return. Can I still qualify for a stimulus payment in 2008?
A. Yes, but you must file a 2007 tax return. The IRS encourages you to file a return even if your income is low or much of your income is tax-free. File your return, if possible, by the regular April 15 deadline. If you file after April 15, with or without a tax-filing extension, your payment will be delayed. If you qualify for a payment, you can insure that you get it by filing your return by Oct. 15, 2008.
Q. Is my stimulus payment taxable?
A. No. You will not owe tax on your payment when you file your 2008 federal income tax return. But you should keep a copy of the IRS letter you receive later this year listing the amount of your payment. In the event you do not qualify for the full amount this year but you do next year, you will need to have the letter as a record of the amount you previously received.

The lies we tell ourselves about money
If you are an impulse shopper who simply can't stop throwing money around, recognizing some of the common lies people tell themselves to justify their spending could help you rein in your urges, says syndicated personal finance columnist Gregory Karp, who also writes for The Morning Call. In his new book ''Living Rich by Spending Smart,'' he lists cliches that freewheeling spenders treat as mantras:

  • I could die tomorrow, so I'll live for today. This immature attitude justifies actions of the buy-it-now and pay-for-it-whenever class. It's the primary excuse for not saving money.
  • I work hard, I deserve it. This is akin to a 4-year-old throwing a tantrum in a toy store crying ''Gimme, gimme.'' While it is true that many Americans are overworked and that you have to treat yourself occasionally, self-gifting is more prominent today because of advertising pitches to buy things ''because you deserve them.'' You also deserve to live out a retirement that doesn't include regular helpings of Alpo.
  • I don't have a head for numbers. This is the excuse given for not paying attention to personal finances. But managing money doesn't require complicated mathematics. Consumers now have a plethora of free online tools to help with all sorts of financial planning. Be happy to do smart things with your money, if they aren't the absolute best you can do.
  • I'm too busy to compare prices or manage money. This might be true for a small fraction of people, says Karp, but mostly it's a lie. Shutting off the TV one night a week will provide most people plenty of time to manage their finances.
    Marshall Loeb Of MarketWatch, February 21, 2008 in The Morning Call, Allentown, PA

Senate Signals Support for Expanding IRA Rollover to Include Life-Income Gifts
The Senate approved its fiscal year 2009 budget resolution (S. Con. Res. 70). The resolution includes language that calls on Congress to reinstate the IRA Charitable Rollover, which expired on December 31, 2007, and expand the provision to allow for life-income agreements, including charitable gift annuities, charitable remainder trusts and pooled income funds. This language was added to the budget resolution by an amendment from Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and was co-sponsored by Senators Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR). The amendment was agreed to in the Senate by unanimous consent. The language added to the budget resolution by the Dorgan amendment is a significant development in NCPG's efforts to retro-actively extend the IRA Charitable Rollover and expand it to include life-income gifts. In particular, the Dorgan amendment is recognition of the role that planned giving can play in encouraging philanthropy by all Americans.
3/15/08 NCPG Mail

IRS Warns of New E-Mail and Telephone Scams Using the IRS Name; Advance Payment Scams Starting
The Internal Revenue Service today warned taxpayers to beware of several current e-mail and telephone scams that use the IRS name as a lure. The IRS expects such scams to continue through the end of tax return filing season and beyond. The IRS cautioned taxpayers to be on the lookout for scams involving proposed advance payment checks. Although the government has not yet enacted an economic stimulus package in which the IRS would provide advance payments, known informally as rebates to many Americans, a scam which uses the proposed rebates as bait has already cropped up. The goal of the scams is to trick people into revealing personal and financial information, such as Social Security, bank account or credit card numbers, which the scammers can use to commit identity theft.
IRS Newswire 1/30/08

You can accidentally disinherit your heirs
By all accounts, Anna Nicole Smith loved her baby daughter Dannielynn. She shielded her from the media, provided her with constant care and surrounded her with every comfort. She also accidentally disinherited her. Here's how: In a will executed in 2001, Anna Nicole placed all of her assets in a trust and named her son Daniel by name (rather than by the more inclusive term "my issue") as sole beneficiary. When Daniel predeceased his mother, the trust legally lapsed for want of a living beneficiary, since Anna Nicole had failed to name a contingent beneficiary for Daniel. Then, because she failed to update her will to include Dannielynn before her own untimely demise at age 39, her sole surviving child was accidentally disinherited. As a result, Anna Nicole's estate -- including the fortune she may someday be awarded from the estate of her late husband, Texas oil billionaire J. Howard Marshall II -- will likely pass through the laws of intestacy -- that is, as if she had died without a will.
12/4/2007 Jay MacDonald Yahoo Finance

Here's how you can accidentally disinherit your loved ones:

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THE ECONOMY: SEVEN INDICATORS - From CNN Money (as of 4/30/08)

The Indicator
transparent
What It's Telling Us
transparent
Next Update
transparent
Consumer Confidence At 5-year low May 27
Retail sales Moderately better than expected for March May 13
Leading Economic Indicators Up slightly May 15
Manufacturing Activity (ISM) Edged higher in March May 1
Industrial Production Rebounded in March May 15
Job Growth Big spike in jobs lost May 2
Inflation (CPI) Running at 4% May 14

Recent Economic News

Fed cuts rates again and hints at pause - 4/30/08 CNN Money
The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point Wednesday, but the central bank's statement signaled it may be the last rate cut for at least a while. The cut took the federal funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks loan money to one another, to 2%. It had been at 5.25% as recently as September, when the Fed started slashing rates in an effort to spur the economy and keep the nation out of recession. Fed policymakers are not set to meet again until June 24 and 25, the longest gap in its calendar of meetings this year. There have been growing complaints that the Fed's aggressive rate cuts this year have been a key to why food and oil prices have skyrocketed lately. The fact that the Fed has cut rates while central banks in Europe and Asia have mostly kept rates steady has led to a weakening of the dollar. That, in turn, has driven up commodity prices.

Slight Growth in Economy, but Consumer Spending Weakens - 4/30/08 NY Times
The American economy remained stuck in the slow lane over the first three months of the year, expanding by a modest 0.6 percent annualized rate, the Commerce Department announced. The weak performance reflected the increasingly thrifty inclinations of American consumers in the face of plummeting real estate prices, tightening credit and a deteriorating job market. Economic growth was also hampered by a continued pullback in construction and business investment. The only factors preventing the economy from sliding backward were the growth of American exports - aided by a weakening dollar - and a buildup of inventories by businesses. Exports and inventories set aside, final sales of American goods and services domestically dipped at a 0.4 percent annualized rate in inflation-adjusted terms, the first decline since the end of 1991. Consumer spending grew at an anemic 1 percent annualized rate, down from 2.9 percent in 2007 and 3.1 percent the year before. The 0.6% GDP growth was ahead of the 0.2% growth rate expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Home prices fall record 12.7% in past year - 4/29/08 MarketWatch
The decline in U.S. home prices quickened in February, with prices down a record 12.7% in the past year for 20 key cities, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's. Prices in 19 of the 20 cities have fallen over the past year, with prices in all 20 cities falling month-to-month for six straight months. The biggest declines were in Las Vegas and Miami, with declines of more than 20% in the past year. Prices in Charlotte, N.C., are up 1.5%.

Consumer Confidence Slips as Home Prices Drop - 4/29/08 NY Times
Americans' confidence in the economy continued to plunge this month as their homes lost value at the fastest rate in two decades, according to reports released on Tuesday. The data suggested that the housing slump was far from a recovery and the job market might continue to weaken, ratcheting up pressure on the Federal Reserve, which began a two-day meeting on Tuesday, to take steps to stave off a prolonged slowdown. Much of the damage has stemmed from a slump in the housing market, where prices are nearly 15 percent off their high in July 2006. The private report, which surveys up to 5,000 American households, dropped to its lowest point since March 2003, at the start of the invasion of Iraq. Americans feel worse about the economy's prospects than any time since the mid-1970s, and many are bracing for job losses. The index fell in April to 62.3 from a revised 65.9 in March and 76.4 in February. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a final April result of 63.0.

New-home sales plunge 8.5% to 17-year low in March - 4/24/08 MarketWatch
U.S. home builders have slashed their average prices by a record amount, but sales still plunged by 8.5% to a 17-year low in March, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. The decline in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 was much weaker than the 577,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The report gives little hope that the housing market is near a bottom. New-home sales are down 36.6% compared with a year ago. The months' supply of homes on the market rose to 11 months, the most in 27 years. Median sales prices have fallen 13.3% in the past year to $227,600.

U.S. jobless claims fall 33,000 to 342,000 - 4/24/08 MarketWatch
First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level in two months in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending April 19 fell 33,000 to 342,000. It's the lowest level since the week ended February 16. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to rise 3,000 to 375,000. Claims in the previous week were revised to an increase of 20,000 to 375,000 compared with the initial estimate of a rise of 17,000 to 373,000. The four-week average of initial claims fell 7,250 to 369,500. Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving state jobless benefits fell 65,000 to 2.93 million in the week ending April 12. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 20,500 to 2.96 million.

Home resales fall 2% to 4.93 million in March - 4/22/08 MarketWatch
The U.S. housing market weakened slightly in March, as resales of U.S. homes fell, inventories climbed and prices continued to decline, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. Resales of U.S. homes and condos dropped 2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.93 million from 5.03 million in February, matching economists' expectations. Resales have sunk 19.3% in the past year. Inventories of homes for sale rose 1% to 4.06 million, representing a 9.9-month supply at the March sales pace. The median sales price fell 7.7% in the past year to $207,000.

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 17,000 to 372,000 - 4/17/08 MarketWatch
First-time filings for state unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 to 372,000 in the week ending April 12, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week moving average of those claims fell by 750 to 376,000. For the week ending April 5, continuing jobless claims came in at 2.98 million, their highest level since mid-June 2004. The number of continuing claims rose by 26,000. The four-week average of continuing claims, meanwhile, rose by 29,750 to 2.94 million.

Leading Economic Indicators Up Slightly - 4/17/08 AP in the NY Times
The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose Thursday, reversing five months of decline. But the indicators are down significantly from a year ago, leaving recession fears festering. Its forecast of future economic activity rose 0.1 percent in March, compared to a 0.3 percent decline in February. Economists had expected a 0.2 percent March increase. The index is designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months based on 10 economic components, including stock prices, building permits and initial claims for unemployment benefits. The Conference Board said another of its indexes, which measures current economic activity, has also deteriorated in recent months, with weakness becoming more widespread among the components of both indexes. ''The current behavior of the composite indexes suggests economic weakness is likely to continue in the near term,'' it said in a press release.

U.S. March housing starts down 11.9% to 947,000 - 4/16/08 MarketWatch
New construction of U.S. houses plunged to the lowest level in 17 years in March, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Starts fell 11.9% in March to a seasonally adjusted 947,000 annualized units weaker than the 988,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. This is the lowest level of starts since March 1991. Starts are dpwn 36.5% year-on-year. Starts of new single-family homes fell by 5.7% to 680,000 in March, while starts of large apartment units fell 24.6% to 267,000. Building permits, a leading indicator of housing construction, fell 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 927,000. This is the lowest level of permits since April 1991.

Consumer Prices Rise Slightly in March - 4/16/08 NY Times
Consumer prices rose slightly in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday, and while inflation remained elevated, there were signs that the soaring cost of food had started to recede. The Consumer Price Index, a bellwether inflation gauge that includes prices from a basket of common consumer goods, increased 0.3 percent after staying flat the previous month. The closely watched "core" index, which excludes the volatile costs of food and energy products, rose less than 0.2 percent. It was unchanged in February. The report, which was in line with expectations, is likely to comfort central bankers as they attempt to avert an economic slowdown while keeping prices in check. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again this month, but officials had warned that rising inflation would muddy the impact of a rate cut.

U.S. economy has weakened since mid-March: Beige Book - 4/16/08 MarketWatch
Economic conditions have weakened across the nation, according to the Federal Reserve's most up-to-date report released Wednesday. Consumer spending has fizzled out, labor market conditions are worsening, and manufacturing activity is treading water, according to the Fed's Beige Book collection of anectodal information from its 12 regional banks. At the same time, inflation appears to be strengthening, the report said. There is no sign of pickup in housing and credit conditions were seen as worsening. Banks are tightening standards at the same time consumer demand is weakening for loans. One bright spot is that foreign visitors are flocking to the U.S. to take advantage of the low value of the dollar relative to the currencies of major trading partners.

U.S. home builders' index remains at 20 in April - 4/15/08 MarketWatch
U.S. home builders remain discouraged about their industry, but attitudes didn't worsen in April, according to the monthly sentiment index released Tuesday by their trade group. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index remained at 20 in April, matching analysts' expectations and close to the record low of 18 reached in December. The index shows that about one in five home builders has a positive view of the industry. Sentiment among builders has been at or below 20 since September.

Oil and Food Rises Stoke Inflation Fear - 4/15/08 NY Times
Businesses continued to grapple with steep inflation last month as oil and food costs reached record highs, leaving Federal Reserve policy makers in a difficult spot ahead of their meeting later this month. A gauge of prices paid by American producers jumped 1.1 percent in March, the Labor Department said on Tuesday, after a 0.3 percent increase in February. Gasoline and home heating oil prices surged. Economists had expected an increase of 0.6 percent in March. While the higher prices put pressure on businesses to pass on costs to consumers, the increases did not spread to popular products like automobiles and clothing. The closely watched core measure of the Producer Price Index, which excludes volatile costs of food and energy, rose 0.2 percent in March, falling back from an unexpected 0.5 percent rise in February. From MarketWatch - Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the PPI to rise 0.4% and the core to rise 0.2%. Year-over-year, the PPI is up 6.9%. The core PPI is up 2.7% over the same time period.

March Retail Sales Up 0.2% on Gasoline Sales - 4/14/08 Reuters in the NY Times
Retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.2 percent in March, pushed up by a jump in gasoline sales, a government report released on Monday showed. Sales at gasoline stations rose 1.1 percent, the Commerce Department said. Excluding gasoline sales, retail sales were flat last month, evidence that consumers are wary about spending in an economy that appears to be contracting. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting retail sales to be unchanged from the previous month. Excluding automobiles, retail sales rose 0.1 percent, in line with expectations.

U.S. March import prices rise 2.8% vs. 2.2% expected - 4/11/08 MarketWatch
A surge in prices for imported petroleum pushed the prices of goods imported into the U.S. up by 2.8% in March, the most since November 2007, the Labor Department reported Friday. Imported petroleum prices jumped by 9.1% in March, their biggest increase since rising 12.4% in November 2007. The price of imported natural gas also surged, by 7.7% in March, after rising 9.9% in February. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting import prices to rise by 2.2% in March.

Consumer Confidence Wanes - 4/11/08 NY Times
Americans' confidence in the economy has withered in the last few weeks, falling to the lowest level since the recession of the early 1980s. A series of recent financial shocks, including the meltdown of the investment bank Bear Stearns, and a significant weakening in the labor market appears to have weighed heavily on Americans who fear a prolonged and severe slowdown in the economy, according to a survey released Friday by Reuters and the University of Michigan. Americans have a bleaker outlook than any time since July 1980, the tail end of the stagflationary era that plagued the country for years. Confidence about the current financial situation fell to a 26-year low.

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 53,000 to 357,000 - 4/10/08 MarketWatch
Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5 fell 53,000 to 357,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday, easing back recent gains. The four-week average of those claims rose 2,500 to 378,250 -- the highest level since October 2005. The prior weekly result for initial claims was revised to 410,000 from a first estimate of 407,000. For the week ending March 29, continuing jobless claims rose 3,000 to 2.94 million - the highest since July 2004. The four-week moving average of those claims gained 36,500 to 2.9 million - the highest level since August 2004.

U.S. Trade Deficit Grows Unexpectedly - 4/10/08 NY Times
The gap between what Americans import and export unexpectedly widened in February as domestic demand rose for automobiles and fell back for crude oil. The trade deficit grew 5.7 percent, to $62.3 billion, its highest reading since November and the second consecutive month of increases. The estimate for January was revised up to $59 billion from $58.2 billion, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. The increase came as a surprise to economists who had expected the economic downturn to suppress domestic demand for foreign goods. Instead, import sales jumped 3.1 percent, the biggest gain in almost a year, to $213.7 billion from a revised $207.3 billion in January.

Retailers Post Sluggish Sales in March - 4/10/08 AP in the NY Times
The nation's retailers reported the weakest March sales in 13 years on Thursday as consumers -- fretting about mounting economic problems and enduring a frigid Easter -- limited their shopping to food and other essentials. With prices at the pump rising and worries about jobs increasing, shoppers bought basics at discounters and wholesale clubs and snubbed mall-based chains' clothing, jewelry and furniture. The earliest Easter in 95 years also hurt sales; shoppers weren't in the mood to buy spring clothing in cold weather.

Wholesale Inventories Jumped in February - 4/9/08 Reuters in the NY Times
U.S. wholesale inventories jumped 1.1 percent February, which was more than twice what analysts had expected, while sales fell 0.8 percent in the biggest drop in a year, according to a Commerce Department report released Wednesday. Wall Street analysts polled by Reuters were expecting inventories to rise 0.5 percent, compared with a revised 1.3 percent increase in January, previously reported as a 1.0 percent gain. The decline in wholesale sales was the largest since a 1.4 percent drop in January 2007, the Commerce Department said. The inventory to sales ratio, a measure of how long it would take to sell stocks at the current sales pace, rose to 1.12 months' worth in February, from 1.10 months in January.

Jobless rate jumps to 5.1%, highest since September 2005 - 4/4/08 MarketWatch
In employment data that would seem worthy of the name recession, the government reported Friday the steepest monthly job losses in five years as well as a spike in the unemployment rate for March. The report confirms widespread pessimism about the near-term economic outlook. Nonfarm payrolls fell by an estimated 80,000 in March, the Labor Department said. It marked the largest decline seen since March 2003, underscoring how reluctant employers remain to committing to making new hires. Private-sector payrolls have now declined for four consecutive months, the data showed. The nation's unemployment rate surged to 5.1% last month, the highest since September 2005. The decline in payrolls was steeper than the 60,000 decrease that had been expected by Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Adding to the sense of weakness in employment, payrolls in January and February were revised lower by a cumulative 67,000. (NY Times - The drop in payrolls was worse than feared: many analysts had expected a decline of 50,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 5 percent.)

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 38,000 to 407,000 - 4/3/08 MarketWatch
Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 29 rose by 38,000 to 407,000, marking the highest level since mid-September 2005, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of those claims also rose, by 15,750 to 374,500, the highest since the beginning of October 2005. For the week ending March 22, continuing jobless claims rose by 97,000 to 2.94 million. (NY Times) - Economists polled by Reuters had expected initial jobless claims to increase to 370,000 in the week ending March 29, compared with 369,000 the prior week, initially estimated at 366,000 claims.

U.S. March private employment up 8,000, ADP says - 4/2/08 MarketWatch
Companies in the U.S. private sector added 8,000 jobs in March, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. The report comes two days before the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payroll growth for March. Adding in some 25,000 jobs typically created by government, the ADP report suggests nonfarm payrolls grew by about 33,000 in March, much better that the drop of 60,000 expected by Wall Street economists. Analysts note that the ADP has overshot the employment report in each of the past four months. Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors, the firm that produces the report, said the March report was weak but was also one of a series of indicators that have been better than expected in recent days. Nonfarm payrolls shrank 63,000 in February.

ISM shows slow downturn in factories in March - 4/1/08 MarketWatch
The nation's manufacturers continued to cut back production in March, but at such a gradual pace that there was general relief that the factory sector was not falling out of bed. The ISM index inched higher to 48.6% in March from 48.3% in February. The rise was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to slip to 47.0%. Economists said the small bounce in the ISM signaled that the current economic downturn may be mild.

Consumers Glum About U.S. Economy - 3/28/08 Forbes.com
American consumers believe the United States is in recession and have growing concerns about the weakening economy, according to a monthly survey by Reuters and the University of Michigan that was released Friday morning. The Index of Consumer Sentiment, which measures consumers' confidence in the U.S. economy, slipped 27.2%, to 69.5, in March 2008, from the corresponding period a year ago. It had measured 70.8, in February. Economists polled by Thomson's IFR Markets had expected sentiment to fall only slightly, to 70.0. The Index of Consumer Expectations dropped to 60.1, in March, down 31.4%, from the peak in January 2007. Prior to the 1990 recession, the Expectations Index fell 24%, and it fell by 30%, prior to the 2001 recession. The survey showed that the tax rebates would increase spending in the third quarter of 2008, by $30 million, to $35 million. This would help keep spending from declining further. Spending is expected to slow in the fourth quarter, due to a lack in credit, weakening home prices, high food prices, and high fuel prices.

U.S. real consumer spending flat in February - 3/28/08 MarketWatch
U.S. consumer spending was flat in February after adjusting for inflation, the third consecutive month of weak consumer demand, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Inflation moderated in January, with consumer prices rising just 0.1% for the month. Core consumer prices - which exclude food and energy costs - also rose 0.1% as expected by economists. Nominal incomes rose 0.5% in February, driven largely by the timing of some government transfer payments. Economists were looking for incomes to rise 0.3%

4th-Quarter Data Confirms Frailty of the Broad Economy - 3/28/08 AP in the NY Times
Final Commerce Department statistics for the fourth quarter of 2007 indicated Thursday that the economy came close to sputtering out. The department reported that the gross domestic product increased at a 0.6 percent annual pace from Oct. 1 through Dec. 31. The reading, unchanged from a previous update of the figures a month earlier, offered confirmation of how much the economy had weakened. In the third quarter of 2007, it grew at a 4.9 percent annual pace. The gross domestic product measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States and is considered the best general gauge of economic health. Many economists expect growth in the current quarter to be even weaker, and a rising number say it may already be contracting. By strict definition, economic contraction for two quarters, or six months, constitutes a recession. The government will release its estimate of the gross domestic product for the first quarter late next month.

New home sales fall to 13-year low - 3/26/08 MarketWatch
Sales of new homes in the United States fell to a 13-year low in February, dropping 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Sales have fallen four months in a row and are off about 30% in the past year. The number of homes on the market dropped by 2.1% to 471,000, the lowest since July 2005, an indication that builders are trying to work off their bloated inventories of unsold homes. The inventory represented a 9.8-month supply at the February sales rate, unchanged from January and the highest since 1981. The median sales price fell 2.7% in the past year to $244,100.

Orders for durable goods fall 1.7% in Feb. - 3/26/08 MarketWatch
Demand for machinery and other capital goods sank in February, driving orders for durable goods down 1.7%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected total orders to rise 0.5% after a revised 4.7% decline in January. Orders for capital goods - the kind of equipment businesses need to increase or modernize their productive capacity - fell 2.6% in February after a 1.8% decline in January. Machinery orders plunged a record 13.3% in February, offsetting a 5.4 increase in civilian aircraft bookings. Excluding transportation goods, orders fell 2.6%, the most in a year.

 

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