DATE: Jan, 2005

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NEWS SOURCES | ARCHIVES OF PAST MONTHS


SPECIAL REPORT

On December 26, 2004, an earthquake in the Indian Ocean violently shook the earth and created waves of 20-30 feet. The resulting devastation in Indonesia, Thailand and Sri Lanka has led to nearly 150,000 deaths.
In response to the magnitude of the personal disaster for victims and families, the House and Senate passed unanimously H.R. 241. This bill permits gifts made between January 1 and January 31 of 2005 to be deductible for tax year 2004. The bill requires that the gifts must be "a cash contribution made for the relief of victims in areas affected by the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami."
Senator Max Baucus (D-MT), is the senior Democratic member of the Senate Finance Committee. He stated, "Survivors of the disaster described destruction of Biblical proportions. The tidal waves swept people out to sea from their beds, ripped children from their mother's arms and washed whole villages away. As we mourn the dead, we should do what we can to help the living."
Chairman Bill Thomas (R-CA) supported the bill noting, "Americans have given generously to ease the suffering of survivors, but significant resources will be needed to restore and rebuild. We hope this small incentive will encourage even more Americans to contribute what they can now to relief efforts."
GiftLaw 1/7/2005

Recent Economic News

January Stocks Down - 2/0105 Wall Street Journal
"Despite a rally" Monday, "stock indexes finished January with clear declines, and that could augur poorly for the year to come. The strong voter turnout and limited violence during Iraq's elections combined with merger news and positive economic reports to drive stocks up at the opening bell.... But oil prices, which began the day down, turned up by afternoon amid continuing jitters about Middle East stability and oil supplies."
GovExec.com

Federal Reserve Is Expected to Continue Raising Rates - 1/30/05 NY Times
Notwithstanding new evidence released on Friday that economic growth has slowed in recent months, the Federal Reserve appears poised to continue raising interest rates for most if not all of this year. Analysts almost unanimously predict that the Fed will increase rates on Wednesday by another quarter-point, to 2.5 percent, and most expect the central bank to repeat past statements about raising rates at a "measured" pace.
NY Times By Edmund L. Andrews

Fed Sees Productivity Growth Slowing Down - 1/20/05 Government Executive
Almost a decade after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan identified higher productivity as the key to inflation-free economic expansion, Fed officials see productivity growth slowing down -- and are studying how that may affect inflation and how fast they should raise interest rates. The Labor Department said Wednesday that inflation, excluding food and energy, was 2.2% in the 12 months that ended in December. That pace was unchanged from November but up sharply from a low of 1.1% in January 2004.
GovExec.com

Fed Minutes Reveal More Worry About Inflation Threat - 1/05/05 Washington Post
Some Federal Reserve policymakers worried last month that inflation dangers were growing and that low interest rates might be encouraging excessively risky investments, including speculative home buying. Members of the Fed's top policymaking committee discussed those concerns at their last meeting, Dec. 14, according to minutes released yesterday. The committee concluded by raising the Fed's benchmark short-term interest rate and signaling that it would lift the rate gradually higher this year.
Stock prices fell after the minutes were released yesterday afternoon. Wall Street "clearly interprets these comments as those of an inflation-fearing Fed that is moving from simply tapping on the brakes to slamming on the brakes," said Richard A. Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research Corp.
Despite the risks cited, Fed officials "generally expected that inflation would remain low in the foreseeable future," the minutes show. The committee expressed that sentiment in the statement it released after the meeting, while repeating that it would likely continue to raise the benchmark federal funds rate at a "measured" pace, which has meant small increases spread over many months.
The Fed raised the rate to 2.25 percent from 2 percent at the December meeting. That was the fifth quarter-percentage-point increase since June, when the rate was 1 percent.

Consumer Spending Slows in November - 12/ 24/2004 AP Washington Post
Growth Was Modest Compared With October's Rise - New Home Sales Cool. US consumers boosted spending only slightly in November, compared with a brisk rise in October, according to a Commerce Department report. November new home sales cooled while demand for big-ticket manufactured goods rebounded. The latest batch of economic reports released yesterday, though sending slightly mixed signals, still painted a picture of a modestly growing economy, analysts said. Analysts said they still expect respectable growth in the fourth quarter, with estimates ranging from a 3.5 percent pace to topping a 4 percent pace.

THE ECONOMY: SEVEN INDICATORS - From CNN Money (as of 1/1/05)
The indicatorWhat it's telling usNext update
Consumer ConfidenceRebounding GrowthJanuary 25
Retail salesRebounding GrowthJanuary 13
Leading Economic IndicatorsRebounding GrowthJanuary 20
Manufacturing Activity (ISM)Rebounding GrowthJanuary 3
Industrial ProductionRebounding GrowthJanuary 14
Jobs GrowthSlowing Growth January 7
Inflation (CPI)No Inflation ThreatJanuary 19

Income Tax Reform in 2005?
President Bush has indicated that he will appoint a commission to study tax reform proposals. Various advocates in Congress have promised to introduce legislation with major changes. Among the ideas that are circulating are a flat income tax, an income tax with only mortgage and charitable itemized deductions, a value added tax or a national sales tax.

There are major obstacles to comprehensive tax reform. The last major simplification of the tax code occurred in 1986. That tax act eliminated many deductions, lowered tax rates and set the capital gain rate equal to the income tax rate. This change simplified the tax code, but also led to a major recession for the real estate industry.

The difficulty in creating a similar tax plan is that there are now thousands of lobbyists who are paid very well to protect specific provisions in our tax code. Since 1986, the tax code has become much more complex, in large part because provisions have been passed to benefit specific groups. With a thousand lobbyists for special interest groups and no one lobbying for tax simplification, the tax code has become extremely complicated.

Former IRS Commissioner Mortimer Caplin suggested in an interview with Tax Magazine that there might be a compromise solution. He suggests that an income tax similar to the 1986 bill could be created with a large exemption. Most Americans under that plan would not pay any federal income taxes. However, to make up for lower income taxes, there would be a national value added tax to provide government revenue. For most taxpayers, this plan would be simpler, since they would pay no federal income taxes and merchants would collect all sales taxes.
Giftlaw 12/31/2004

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U.S. Seventh in World Giving
The U.S. ranks behind six other countries in private philanthropy, a new Johns Hopkins study says. The study, conducted by the Center for Civil Society Studies at the school's Institute for Policy Studies, finds the Netherlands in the lead, followed by Sweden, Tanzania, Norway, France and Britain.

The ranking evaluates private philanthropy, which includes cash and in-kind gifts from individuals, businesses and foundations, as well as the value of volunteer time, as a percentage of gross domestic product. Giving in the Netherlands accounted for 4.4 percent of GDP, compared to 2.5 percent for the U.S., the study says.

The study does not include giving to religious congregations because data were not available for all countries, the study says. The U.S. leads the world in giving when the value of volunteer time is excluded.
Philanthropy Journal 12/28/04

Estate Tax Permanent Repeal in 2005?
In early 2005, Sen. John Kyl (R-AZ) and other advocates of repeal will seek to pass a law that permanently repeals the estate tax. Previous attempts by Sen. Kyl were four votes short of permanent repeal. However, with the new Republican senators who will be coming to Washington in January, the advocates of permanent repeal may have the necessary 60 votes.

The Senate has been divided into two groups with very strong and directly opposing positions. The advocates of complete repeal of the estate tax have consistently voted against all compromises. Those who wish to retain an estate tax for the top one-third of one percent of the nation (generally families with estates of $10 million or more after the year 2010), have proposed various compromises and consistently voted against repeal.

Permanent repeal in 2005 may depend primarily on Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA). Both have indicated a preference for the compromise offered by moderate Democratic senators, but both have also voted for permanent repeal. Their votes could easily lead to the success or failure of the permanent repeal effort.
Giftlaw 12/31/2004

Is There Less Cushion Than We Think?
For two decades, the Social Security system has been creating a "surplus," and that reserve is widely thought to be available to make up for shortfalls projected to begin in 2018, when more money has been promised to beneficiaries than will be taken in through payroll taxes. But that surplus isn't a pile of cash waiting to be used. In fact, the money -- $1.5 trillion plus interest to date -- has already been spent.

In accordance with the law, the extra money Social Security takes in is loaned to the U.S. Treasury, in exchange for which it receives special-issue Treasury bonds. The actual cash goes into the government's general revenue pool.

The bonds are special because, unlike other government bonds, they can't be bought or sold on the open market, and they can be redeemed at any time at face value.

But just like other government bonds, the special-issue Treasurys pay interest and are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, which has never defaulted on its debt.

When Social Security looks to tap those special securities, starting in 2018, the government will have to come up with a way to pay the money. It has several options. Among them, it can:

  • Borrow the money by issuing more public debt.
  • Raise the payroll tax, which is the percentage of your earned income that gets paid into Social Security.
  • Raise income taxes or other general taxes. " Cut spending on other programs.
  • Reduce Social Security benefits.

One might argue that any of these options comes at the expense - directly or indirectly -- of U.S. workers, both those who paid the surplus into the system and their children.

Whatever options the government chooses, "there will be budget pressure," said Craig Copeland, director of EBRI's nonpartisan Social Security Research Program.

CNN Money

IRS Summary of New Tax Laws
A number of changes to the tax laws took effect January 1, 2005. They include adjustments and changes to:

  • Education Incentives
  • Tax Credits
  • Retirement Plans / Individual Retirement Arrangements
  • Inflation Adjustments
  • Extension of Expiring Provisions and
  • Miscellaneous Items

To view the IRS summary in a printable format, click here.

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Please note, individual financial circumstances will vary. The information on this site is meant as general information and does not represent legal or tax advice.. As with all tax and estate planning, please consult your attorney or estate specialist. All material is copyrighted and is for viewing purposes only. This News and Information section has been compiled by Future Focus.
Please report any problems to webmaster. Revised: February 2, 2005 12:46.