Recent
Economic NewsRecent Economic News
Low
Rates Could Be Around for Long Term -
6/27/05 New York Times
Federal
Reserve officials, who meet this week, are beginning to suspect that the perplexing
decline in long-term interest rates is more than a temporary aberration. The possibility
has major implications for the economy, and it creates new puzzles for Fed officials
on how they should respond.
The unexpected decline of long-term interest rates
has kept mortgage rates at their lowest level in decades and fueled what many
analysts fear is a bubble in housing prices. Alan Greenspan said in February that
the low long-term rates might simply be a "short-term aberration." But Mr. Greenspan
and other senior officials are now suggesting that the change is more enduring.
While there is division about the proper interpretation, some officials have
been optomistic. "My sense is that people think this could be the new reality,
that this could be fundamental, that it could be long-lasting," said Laurence
H. Meyer, a former Fed governor and now vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers,
a forecasting firm. Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond,
suggested "the most likely explanation for the low rates," he said, is that "inflation
is low and that inflation expectations are low."
Leading
Indicators Decline in May - 6/20/05 AP
A closely watched gauge of future business activity fell more than
expected in May, indicating slower economic growth may lie ahead later this year,
a private research group announced Monday.
Wholesale
prices plunged -
6/14/2005 AP
Wholesale prices plunged 0.6 percent in
May, the biggest decline in more than two years, as the cost of both energy and
food retreated. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that the decline in its
Producer Price Index followed gains of 0.6 percent in April and 0.7 percent in
March, hefty increases which had raised worries that inflation was threatening
to break out of the moderate pattern of the past several years. Three-fourths
of the May decline reflected a big 3.5 percent drop in energy prices after three
months of sizable gains in this area.
But prices were contained in other
areas as well with so-called ''core'' inflation, excluding energy and food. That
number rose by just 0.1 percent in May, down from a 0.3 percent jump in April.
In other economic news, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell
by 0.5 percent in May, the first decline in nine months. The drop, which followed
a huge 1.5 percent increase in April, reflected a decrease in auto sales and lower
prices for gasoline. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the
economy, despite being buffeted by a spike in energy prices earlier this year,
seemed to be on ''reasonably firm footing'' with inflation remaining under control.
Economic
Reports - 6/10/2005 GovExec.com
In testimony to
Congress' Joint Economic Committee Thursday, "Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan
said the economy has left its soft spot behind and that companies' pricing power
is more evident, suggesting more interest-rate increases are to come," the Wall
Street Journal reports. In a report released Thursday, "the Fed said the value
of all U.S. housing climbed 15% in the first quarter from a year earlier, and
mortgage debt rose 13%, both easily outstripping the 6% gain in after-tax income
over the same period." (Subscription Required) ·
Greenspan also "gave his
clearest warning yet that housing bubbles pose dangers in some areas and are being
fed by unusually low interest rates and risky lending practices that are raising
the level of concern at the central bank," the Washington Times reports. "In light
of the 'unsustainable level' of prices in some local markets, Mr. Greenspan suggested...
that the Fed and other bank regulators soon may move to curb questionable mortgage
loans by national banks."
Economic
Reports - 6/8/2005
"The Bush administration issued
a slightly less optimistic forecast for the country's economic growth and inflation
for the rest of the year but predicted a solid increase in new jobs," AP reports.
"The White House is predicting that gross domestic product will grow by 3.4% as
measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter.... Last year, the economy grew
by 3.7%."
"Economists linked to the housing industry on Wednesday boosted
their forecasts for U.S. home sales in 2005, saying homebuyer demand remains strong
thanks to stubbornly low mortgage rates," Reuters reports. "The National Association
of Realtors said sales of existing homes this year could shatter last year's record.
The trade group boosted its forecast for the year and now expects existing home
sales to rise 1.6 percent to 6.89 million units from a 2004 record of 6.78 million."
Income
Rose in April, But Barely Beat Inflation - Washington Post
5/28/05
Income and spending in the United States climbed at healthy
rates last month, but not much faster than consumer prices, the Commerce Department
reported yesterday. Personal income -- which includes wages, salaries, interest,
rents and other sources -- rose 0.7 percent in April, the fastest rate in five
months. But after taxes and inflation, consumers had little more cash in hand;
real disposable personal income edged up just 0.1 percent, the report said.
Consumer spending rose 0.6 percent last month, a slowdown from the 0.9 percent
increase in March. After adjusting for inflation, such purchases were only 0.2
percent greater in April than the month before. "Today's report of near stagnant
real disposable income and only modest growth in spending for April -- when job
growth was solid -- must be seen as disappointing and troubling for the months
ahead," wrote Charles W. McMillion, chief economist of MBG Information Services,
a financial research firm in Washington.
Home
Sales Continue at Torrid Pace - Washington Post 5/25/05
Sales and prices of existing homes rose to record highs in April, an industry
group reported yesterday, four days after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan
warned in his strongest language yet that housing prices have climbed to "unsustainable"
levels in many markets. Greenspan and other Fed officials have said for a while
that home-price appreciation should slow in coming months as interest rates rise,
most likely in a gradual manner that will not harm the overall economy. But that
process has not even begun.
Economic
Indicators Send Mixed Signals
- The Associated Press 5/18/05
Wholesale
prices are climbing, industrial production is faltering and housing construction
is rebounding, offering mixed signals about the economy. The latest batch of economic
reports, released Tuesday, depicted "an OK economy that is moving forward. It's
not uniformly strong, but it is still sturdy," said Mark Zandi, chief economist
at Economy.com. A Labor Department report showed the producer price index, which
measures the costs of goods before they reach store shelves, increased 0.6 percent
in April, reflecting more expensive energy, cars and cigarettes. The increase
in wholesale prices came on top of an even larger, 0.7 percent advance in March.
The latest price figures bolstered economists' belief that Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan and his colleagues will continue to push up short-term interest
rates for much of this year to combat inflation.
THE
ECONOMY: SEVEN INDICATORS - From CNN Money (as of 6/18/05)
The
Indicator |
What
It's Telling Us
| Next
Update |
| Consumer
Confidence |
Consumers far more confident | June
28 |
| Retail
sales | Unexpected
drop in retail sales | July
14 |
| Leading
Economic Indicators | Mixed
results | June
20 |
| Manufacturing
Activity (ISM) | Weakest
in 2 years | July
1 |
| Industrial
Production | Surprise
drop | June
15 |
| Jobs
Growth | Growth
Weak | July
5 |
| Inflation
(CPI) | Index
lower in May, core CPI rises less than forecast. | July
15 |
http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/#indicators
Trust
Division Won't Prevent Resulting Trusts From Qualifying as Charitable Remainder
Trusts - 6/20/05
A married couple created a charitable
remainder trust naming themselves as the sole joint and survivor income recipients.
"For a variety of reasons" (which didn't include the divorce) the couple would
now like to divide their trust into two identical trusts with each spouse being
the sole income recipient of their respective trust. The Service has ruled that
the proposed division of one trust into separate trusts will not cause either
of the resulting trusts to fail to qualify as charitable remainder trusts under
section 664 or cause gain or loss to be recognized by the husband and wife who
set up the original trust under section 1001.
Planned Giving Design Center - Ltr. Rul. 200524013
Greenspan
Wary of Risky Mortgages - 6/10/2005 Washington Post
Price Peaks Built on 'Exotic' Loans Trouble Fed Chairman
Federal Reserve
Chairman Alan Greenspan yesterday expressed concern that the growing use of riskier
new mortgages is helping push up home prices to "unsustainable levels" in some
local markets. Home prices in some areas of the country may fall when the market
cools, but that probably would not cause serious harm to the overall U.S. economy,
he told Congress's Joint Economic Committee. The economy continues to expand at
a decent if uneven pace, Greenspan said, indicating that the Fed probably will
continue to raise short-term interest rates gradually to keep inflation under
control
Reynolds
Announces Bill to Allow Larger Charitable Deductions - 6/7/2005
In a June
7 release, House Ways and Means Committee member Thomas M. Reynolds, R-N.Y., announced
his intention to introduce a bill, the Art and Collectibles Capital Gains Tax
Treatment Parity Act, that would increase deductions for charitably donating art
and would lower the capital gains tax rate for art.
Attention
Shifts Toward Simplification of Tax Code - 6/9/2005
Washington Post
With progress on Social Security slowing to
a crawl, the House Ways and Means Committee turned its attention to the subject
considered to be committee Chairman Bill Thomas's true passion: an overhaul of
the tax code. Thomas (R-Calif.) gave only subtle hints of his intentions at the
first hearing on comprehensive tax changes in a decade. For instance, he spoke
favorably about testimony that described a flat tax as potentially progressive
and little different in economic effect from a value-added tax. Value-added taxes
-- widely in use in Europe -- levy sales taxes on each level of a product's production.
Economic policymakers were intrigued less by the contents of the hearing
than the fact that Thomas held it. President Bush's Advisory Panel on Federal
Tax Reform is not due to release its recommendations until July 31, and White
House officials are expected to put those recommendations on the back burner until
Congress finishes with a Social Security overhaul.
Congressional Democrats
have also suggested they could get behind Thomas on a push to dramatically simplify
the tax code. Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional
Campaign Committee, proposed collapsing five existing educational tax breaks into
a single, $3,000 tuition tax credit; unifying the earned-income credit, the child
credit and the dependent-care tax credit; and drafting a single pension plan out
of the 16 different tax incentives that now encourage retirement savings.
ACGA
Requests IRS Withdraw Rev. Proc. 2005-24 - 6/8/05 Planned Giving
Design Center
The American Council on Gift Annuities has written to
Treasury and the IRS asking them to withdraw Rev. Proc. 2005-24 (requiring waivers
of spousal rights of election against inter vivos CRUTs and CRATs) for further
study. Unless its requirements are met for CRTs created on or after June 28, 2005,
inter vivos CRUTs and CRATs are disqualified-retroactively to the date of creation-if
a spousal right of election now exists under state law, exists in the future,
exists if the grantor of a CRUT or CRAT moves, marries or remarries.
But
spousal rights of election are rarely exercised. Thus waivers shouldn't be required
regardless of when a CRT is created. In the rare case that a right of election
is exercised, the government should be protected and we give our suggestions for
accomplishing that later in this letter. The ACGA has made the following suggestions
to the IRS: Treat CRATs and CRUTs whenever they were or will be created, the way
Rev. Proc. 2005-24 treats pre-June 28, 2005 trusts. Thus no waiver of the right
of election should ever be required.
In the rare case that a right of election
is exercised, the estate should, on the grantor's final income tax return, be
required to include as income any income tax charitable deduction taken by the
grantor when the grantor created the trust (the tax benefit rule). In the rare
case that the right of election is exercised, the estate tax charitable deduction
should be reduced. It should only be allowed to the grantor's estate for the value
of the assets that actually go to the charitable remainder organization at the
grantor's death. Thus the deduction would be reduced by the value of the assets
going to the spouse. If at the grantor's death, trust payments are to continue
for the life of a successor recipient(s) before the charity gets its remainder
interest, the estate tax charitable deduction should be reduced to take into account
the amount that went to the spouse from the CRT at the grantor's death.
Donating
The Use Of Real Property
When considering making a charitable gift, most people think in
terms of donating of cash, securities, or other property. However, a gift of the
"use of" real or tangible property can be just as valuable to the charitable donee.
For example, Dr. Ben Walters purchased some vacant land adjacent to the hospital
campus where he worked and he then built a three-story medical office building.
In addition to housing his own practice, the balance of the building is rented
to other physicians, a pharmacy, and a medical lab.
Dr. Walters has decided
to retire after a successful career and is appreciative of the hospital and his
community and has decided he would like to give something back. The hospital is
expanding its "Healthy Beginnings" pre-natal education program and is looking
for space for its staff and to conduct classes. Dr. Walters will execute a five-year
lease of his former medical suite to the hospital for the sum of $1 per year.
The hospital will be responsible for any tenant improvements and for utilities
just as the building's other tenants. At the end of the five-year term, the hospital
and Dr. Walters will assess the program and the hospital's needs, at which time
he may renew the lease.
Unlike gifts of cash or property, the Internal Revenue
Code does not allow a charitable income tax deduction for donations of the rent-free
use of property. The reason is that such gifts represent a gift of other than
the donor's entire interest in the property. To allow a deduction would be to
allow a double tax benefit: a charitable deduction and avoidance of recognition
of rental income.
The hospital, however, doesn't consider this donation an
"un-gift" at all. For donor recognition purposes, the hospital plans to recognize
Dr. and Mrs. Walters for the fair market value of their contribution because,
to the hospital, this significant donation is just as valuable as cash!
Other
examples cited include rent-free use residential real property to charity; a free
loan of artwork to a museum; and the rent-free use of automobiles to an educational
organization for use in driver education programs.
www.pgdc.org
Help
is on the Way for Mutual Fund Investors-in the Form of Lower Fees
Over
the past year or so, hundreds of mutual funds, big and small, have moved to cut
the fees they charge shareholders. Among them have been the three largest mutual
fund companies: Vanguard Group, American Funds and Fidelity Investments. The price
war means investors now have more low-cost options, giving them a chance to find
better prices when looking for comparable funds.
Many investors don't think
twice about the fees charged by their mutual funds, but in doing so, they are
ignoring a critical van-able for determining how well they'll do on their investment.
Fund expenses-which are expressed as an annual percentage of assets known as the
expense ratio-are deducted directly from fund assets and essentially come out
of investors' pockets. The higher the expenses, the less money returned to investors.
In fact, a recent report on fund fees by mutual fund researcher Morningstar Inc.
said that expense ratios "are the best predictor of performance-way better than
historical returns."
Critics of the mutual fund industry say it's about time
fees started to come down. Morningstar's Russel Kinnel says its study found that
between 1989 and 2004 the average expense ratio for mutual funds aimed at individual
investors edged up to 0.96% from 0.94%, once the data are adjusted to account
for where investors have the most money. Though small, the increase is striking,
Morningstar says. The reason: As a fund's assets increase, the cost of managing
that money doesn't grow as fast, an effect called "economies of scale." And during
the 15-year period in question, the amount of money invested in mutual funds soared
to $6.2 trillion from $550 billion.
Wall Street Journal Sunday
5/8/05
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Passage
of Major Charitable Reforms by Memorial Day?
According to Capitol Hill staff, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), chair of the Senate
Finance Committee, is seeking to have his charitable reform measures passed by
Memorial Day. These measures likely will include:
-
changes
to the noncash gift deduction rules, dramatically limiting the deduction a donor
could take;
-
the
implementation of a federal accreditation program;
-
the
creation of Form 990 filing fees to be imposed on charities;
-
state
enforcement of federal laws that likely would result in 50 different interpretations;
-
restrictions
on the size of boards; and
-
a
requirement compelling charities to submit extensive and detailed information
justifying their tax-exempt status to the IRS every five years.
It appears that
Sen. Grassley will try to pass the charitable reforms by attaching them to the
Charity Aid, Recovery and Empowerment (CARE) Act. AFP has strongly supported the
CARE Act over the past four years because it contained several important charitable
giving incentives such as the IRA rollover provision. However, if burdensome charitable
reforms are added to the CARE Act, AFP will be forced to reconsider its position
on the legislation. AFP is working with members of Congress to ensure that the
CARE Act is introduced without any onerous reforms attached.
AFP
news 5/2/05
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